Northern Australia has an above average chance of experiencing an early start to the wet season according to data released today by the Bureau of Meteorology.
The BoM’s Northern Rainfall Onset Outlooksuggests parts of the north have an 80 per cent chance of getting significant rainfall before the average wet season start date in late October.
“Normally we see the first 50 millimetres of rain in the last two weeks of October, so the chances are we’re going to see rain in October,” said the head of NT climate services Greg Browning.
He said rain could arrive as early as mid-September and the current outlook reflects a warmer than normal Indian Ocean and the chance of La Niña forming in the second half of 2016.
Mr Browning said indications were the upcoming wet season would be an improvement on the previous 2015/16 wet season.
“The ducks are lining up,” he said.
“So as well as the Indian Ocean looking quite promising, we have a potential La Niña event as well, which would enhance the signal we’re getting from the Indian Ocean for some early wet season rainfall, but we’re also likely to see the wet season deliver greater than average rainfall totals.
“So things are looking good.”